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The J.P. Morgan Healthcare Conference (JPM) provides a pulse check on trends shaping biopharma and healthcare. The mood at last year’s JPM was cautiously optimistic, as the industry recuperated from a challenging financing environment. Let’s revisit how 2024’s predictions unfolded and explore what this year’s conference signals for the year ahead.
GLP-1s: Market Dominance, Compounding, and the Voyage Beyond Obesity
GLP-1s were the hot topic at last year’s JPM. Throughout the year, Lilly and Novo Nordisk maintained their dominance in the GLP-1 obesity market but grappled with competition from GLP-1 compounding companies that arose from tirzepatide and semaglutide shortages. In response, Lilly and Novo Nordisk announced a total of over $16 billion (4, 5, 6) in multi-year investments to increase R&D and manufacturing capacity that primarily impacts GLP-1 production.
The outlook for GLP-1s at JPM 2025 is more complicated. Eli Lily, for instance, cut revenue guidance by $400 million and indicated interest in diversifying their portfolio. However, excitement for the possibility of expanding the indications for GLP-1s in 2025 remains, with growing interest in inflammation and craving management.
AI: Practical Advances in Health Tech, Challenges in Drug Discovery
Last year, while AI continued to make waves in health tech—particularly in clinical decision support tools—high implementation costs challenged broader adoption. At JPM 2025, optimism was afloat as Nvidia announced partnerships with IQVIA, Illumina, and the Mayo Clinic to develop AI-enabled tools such as digital pathology capabilities and multifunctional research assistants. Companies like Wayfair and Talkspace also introduced AI-driven innovations such as automated denial appeals and therapy documentation. These developments reflected the overall excitement for AI integration in health tech, with telehealth expected to continue growing this year despite a crowded market.
Despite the initial excitement for AI in drug discovery at JPM 2024, the sentiment grew more reserved throughout the year as biopharma stakeholders sought stronger evidence of its impact. While AI has demonstrated immense promise—achieving an 80-90% success rate in Phase 1 clinical candidates—only 24 candidates have successfully completed Phase 1 trials, with several sharing disease targets or mechanism of actions with marketed therapies. However, with additional clinical readouts from AI-driven candidates anticipated in 2025, the coming year will provide greater clarity on the significance of AI’s transformative potential in drug discovery. Looking further ahead, attendees of this year’s JPM emphasized that access to robust, high-quality data remains the cornerstone of AI’s future success in both biopharma and healthcare.
M&A Activity, Strategic Adjustments in a Conservative Market
M&A activity in 2024 did not live up to the optimistic tone set at last year’s JPM, with the top 10 deals totaling $54.1 billion (10)—a sharp decline from 2023’s $115.8 billion (11). Since the number of deals remained relatively steady, the delta can be explained by a smaller average deal size. The only two deals that exceeded $5 billion were Novo Holding’s $16.5 billion acquisition of Catalent and Sanofi’s €8 billion partial exit from its consumer health business, Opella. To maximize returns and prepare for the impending loss-of-exclusivities in 2030, Big Pharma strategically targeted assets with strong go-to-market capabilities and supply chain synergies.
At JPM 2025, a hopeful tone was set by announcements such as Johnson & Johnson’s $14.6 billion acquisition of Intra-Cellular Therapies and Gilead’s $1.7 billion partnership with LEO Pharma to address dermatologic inflammation kicking off the conference.
Venture Capital Exits
JPM 2024 also ended with guarded optimism for the recovery of venture. Despite a 12.8% decline in deal volume, first-round biotech VC funding rose to $7.7 billion—a significant recovery from 2023’s $3.8 billion (14). This reality reflects venture’s increasing appetite for later-staged assets under teams with strong records of previous exits. This year, JPM signaled a newfound interest in immunology, neurology, and cardiology as well as continued excitement in oncology and GLP-1s. Health tech VC investments also increased by 17% in 2024 to $14.8 billion, with AI, mental health, and women’s health-tech drawing the most attention. Despite regulatory uncertainties, more IPOs are expected in 2025, indicating increased confidence in returns and a potential thawing of capital in life sciences and healthcare.
Cell and Gene Therapies—Challenges, and Momentum
In 2024, industry-wide layoffs in biopharma rose by 3% with the cell and gene therapy space being hit especially hard as major players such as Bluebird Bio and Intellia Therapeutics underwent profitability-focused restructuring. Meanwhile, manufacturing and marketing difficulties in the space have led companies like Bristol Myers Squibb and Sanofi to pivot towards modalities with proven wins. Despite these headwinds, recent developments such as positive human data from Sana Biotechnology breathed optimism into space at JPM 2025. This year, as the industry doubles down on its efforts to make profit-focused, pragmatic decisions, emerging data and focused efforts on strengthening supply chain capabilities prepares the cell and gene therapy space for yet another decisive year.
China’s Growing Influence
Driven by proactive efforts to improve research integrity, China’s growing influence in the global biopharma space has become unavoidable. In 2024, Chinese firms accounted for a third of Big Pharma out-licensing deals, 85% of which were involved antibody-drug conjugates. However, legislative uncertainties such as potential tariffs under the new administration, and the now-quiescent Biosecure Act—which would block federal funding for collaborations with at least five Chinese biotech companies—underscore the complexity of the current US-China dealmaking landscape. In this environment of political uncertainty, China’s role in biopharma will continue to be an important development to watch in 2025.
The Big 2025 (and Beyond) Question
One theme that emerged from JPM 2025 was the uncertainty that arose from the new administration. From increasing consolidation in healthcare, the fate of the “pill penalty” (an IRA provision that limits small molecule market exclusivity to 9 years, instead of 13), to the downstream consequences of the Department of Governmental Efficiency (DOGE) on the drug approval process, the vast unknowns have left much to interpretation. Despite the uncertainty, however, some are hopeful that the Trump administration’s past stances will lead to decreased oversight and increased M&A activity.
The View from the Crow’s Nest
In 2024, biopharma and healthcare saw cautious optimism, with GLP-1s maintaining dominance despite rising competition, while AI showed promise but lacked full impact in drug discovery. M&A activity slowed, reflecting a more conservative approach, and venture capital rebounded, particularly in later-stage biotech. Looking to 2025, the focus will shift to strategic partnerships, investments in immunology, oncology, and AI, with China’s growing influence providing new opportunities for collaboration. As the industry confronts the challenges of post-2030 loss of exclusivity and other emerging uncertainties, success in the year ahead will hinge on proactive strategy and the ability to adapt swiftly to shifting market conditions.
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